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Heh, well I try and avoid being too speculative because it can cause, er, the thread count to be disrupted. ;-)
Interesting, though, how reluctant the money jugglers are to short Bitcoin, et al. It's like everyone just knows it's all a bubble but isn't going risk anything on such a sure bet.
The problem with those cards is that they probably will have been thrashed 24/7, so when they do sell them they are going to be very sub par because of that..
It's really hard to short Bitcoin.
...along with a lot of cards pushed beyond their operating parameters for lengthy periods of time.
...
And the people who do serious work at home and have to pay for their equipment? What are they supposed to do?
Not everyone who works at home is doing it for fun.
Probably mine bitcoins so you can afford to...
Not sure why new cards will have been thrashed.
Yes of course. I was referring just to the two "main" categories, not covering every possible case. For people working at home with their own hardware it's always a matter of income vs expenses.
...too little too late. The costs of getting into it now far outweigh the reward. One GPU card is not sufficient to see any kind of appreciable return. A lot of 6 GTX 1070s costs roughly 5,500$ - 6,000$ plus all the other hardware needed. Many mining rigs have twice that number of GPUs (or even more). If I could afford that, I'd simply buy a 16 GB Quadro P5000 for rendering and maybe two used K40s to add their cores for boosting calculation speed.
That's actually incorrect, the price is going up precisely because people are still seeing a return on the investment.
These prices are making me nervous. I hope my good "old" 980ti will keep doing what it does best and not die on me. I just checked the Dutch market and the upscale 1080ti is around 300 euro's above what it used to be. I hopped on a second hand market place out of curiousity (I'd never purchase a secon hand videocard in this pricerange) and I saw adds from bitcoin miners asking for people to offer them GUP's for silly low prices. Surely this whole GPU debacle can't be good for the 3D market as it will get more out of reach to build a decent rendering rig for some.
I am curious what Nvidia is doing to meet supply and demand. It must be a goose laying gold eggs. But I understand that building more assembly factories take a huge amount of time, plus they depend on lots of parts that are probably suffering the same demand as the GPU's are in whole.
Very curious where this market is going.
I just read an article explaining where they are trying to split the market by offering dedicated mining GPU's where they leave out the video connectors. Fingers crossed it will help.
The trouble is that nVidia, AMD, and the card makers, don't want to ramp up production facilities only for the bubble to burst and demand to plummet
And there are rumours of new cards in April; believable ones too, seeing as what has been released and the age of the 10 series. Presuming there is any veracity in these rumours, then Nvidia will care more about supply of the new cards, than the old ones.
They can be considered by Nvidia to be EOL (end of life).
Ah yes, and probably that :O (mostly that probably)
...most mining rigs generally employ multiple GPU cards, like six to ten to a dozen or more. Miners are finding was around purchasing limits (which is why sites that have imposed them continually are out of stock), and again as I mentioned, sites like Amazon and Newegg are offering cards in lots of 6. More cards, more number crunching capability, more and faster number crunching capability means better and quicker returns. It is just like having more cards to increase frame rate for games/animations or reduce render times for individual images.
Keep in mind it also takes power to run a system and that has to be taken into account as well. Most likely with the one card I have (legacy card) I'd be lucky to see a minuscule net profit for the effort over a month's time after subtracting the cost of running the computer 24/7 while just letting it mine and do nothing else so as not to reduce system resources being applied to the task. Crikey, taking my my deposit bottles back to the market each month would bring a higher return.
..also dedicated mining cards without video outputs would have no resale value should the Cryptocurrency market crash, hence why miners are reluctant to buy them. With a standard GPU card they know that if things go south they can sell it on ebay to gamers/enthusiasts desperate for a high memory GPU card, and recoup some of their investment.
Expected break-even on a 1080 Ti even at current prices is still under a year. This is why people are still buying them and why the cost is going to keep going up unless a massive influx of new cards happens (and probably even then).
I have read that it takes around 6 months to get the hardware investment back, and that includes the electricity costs, although I am sure that number is highly variable. Either way, due to the power consumption being a major part of the costs, GPU cards that run at low power for the same number of cores, ie the 10 series of cards, will be much more sort after by miners than the older, more power hungry cards.
For sure.
They'll be reluctant to make huge investments, but they'll be keen as mustard to increase supply so as to profit from the demand.
AMD Increases GPU Production to Match Crypto Mining Demand
https://news.bitcoin.com/amd-increases-gpu-production-to-match-crypto-mining-demand/
Nvidia ‘working really hard’ to increase supply of graphics cards
https://www.polygon.com/2018/2/8/16993264/nvidia-gpu-supply-production-shortage-cryptocurrency-mining
...yeah that also means dedicating that card to mining until it pays itself off to get the quickest return on the investment.
So basically what this means is if I didn't purchase say a GTX 1070 a year ago (which I couldn't due to certain circumstances and matters I needed to address), I can pretty much write off GPU rendering unless the cryptocurrency bubble magically goes *pop*.
Nvidia (as well as AMD) is not going to risk the expense involved in expanding production as they know there is the chance it may do just that, and then as I mentioned, they'd be stuck not only with large stocks of new cards to move, but competing against a glut of cards flooding the second hand market.
Nvidia has also been directing it's development resources more towards deep learning, AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles as that is seen as a more viable future.
For people like myself who are unable to plop down 800$ - 1,400$ for a high memory GPU card, I guess it means so much for working with Iray as we will basically be stuck in the CPU slow lane indefinitely.
Apologies, but from the start I have seen this whole recent mining craze as little more than a "get rich quick" bandwagon that people are jumping on. Those who got in on the ground floor years ago, who stuck it out through all the previous bubbles and busts, they are the ones who will actually see a decent return.
No joke. You were the one saying there wouldn't be a return on a single GPU card, I was only explaining that this is not the case and that's actually what's driving the "bubble" even higher. A thousand or so a year is nothing to scoff at and not even a little out of reach with a single card.
You could, I believe, use them for rendering in iray. You just couldn't run a monitor with them.
Use the motherboard graphics, or add a second, cheaper video card.
...I will believe it when actually see hard proof of it. Most reports I've read show very little net return even in a year's time over costs. Certainly the card I have wouldn't be able to generate that much in a year as it's a much older slower one (also not into just leaving my system do nothing but sit and mine cryptocoins all day and night, I built it to create art with).
Another question, where does one exchange this "new wealth" for real "hard" currency to use in the everyday world? The local grocery market I shop at, transit system I ride, the corner pub I go to, the 3D content vendor I order from don't accept bitcoin or Eutherem or "whatever" as a means of exchange.
Oh, and should that bubble continue to grow, so will the prices of GPU cards making it all the more difficult for many to purchase one. Basically, that implies the window for getting into GPU rendering is closing, and once the GTX 11xx series (or whatever it's called) comes out those cards will likely be "gone in sixty seconds" as well, allowing the high prices to prevail.
You don't generate as much profit the first year because that's the year that has huge cost tied up in the card...
Exchanges like everyone else.
...right, so someone on the shallow end of the economic pool will have little chance as the initial investment has become so ridiculous and apparently will remain so if not get worse. Furthermore, I'm not interested in "financial schemes" like mining, I am just interested in getting a card that can handle rendering a good portion of the scenes I create. Two and a half years struggling in the "slow lane" has been enough.
...and what exchanges? Do they also take a cut ("service fee") like airport currency exchanges and those "spare change" machines at the market do?
If I sound a bit sour on this whole mining craze it is because I was getting close to saving up enough for a 1070 when prices for cards were sent through the roof. A 1060 (which is now more than the original price of a 1070) isn't going to cut it.
This is depressing the h*ll out of me - I'd planned to revamp my old PC this year, and replace my old 760 with a nice shiny new 6Gb 1060. The new card has gone up in price by almost EU 100 since the end of last year, putting it outside what I had budgeted for it. Not that the local shop has had more than one or two on offer since the beginning of December.
Oh well, between Scene Optimizer and using Genesis 2 I can still do more than portraits. It'll have to do for a bit longer.
Greetings,
It's a currency, like any other, and yes, the exchanges take a fee. (There's actually a whole protocol improvement that's designed to make that fee less onerous.) Outside of its impact on your ability to buy a high-end video card, don't worry about the cryptocoin stuff. It'll settle down eventually.
As for the question
Because markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I am not entirely convinced that video cards extracted from mining rigs and resold will be significantly harmed compared to a normally used high end video card. It'll be an interesting question, and one that'll take a while for the statistics to come back on.
-- Morgan