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Is your wishlist ready for Christmas?

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  • TorquinoxTorquinox Posts: 4,348

    My 12/31 showed as tier 1 - just 1 punch. And I already knew that from what I got. 

  • MelanieLMelanieL Posts: 7,743
    edited January 4

    joanna said:

    Luckydraft said:

    You have your full list of items (free & paid, irrespective of what you chose) here: daz3d.com/customer/deals/advent/history.

    Whoa! This is helpful. Thank you!

    Helpful and also fascinating1

    It allowed me to see easily (compared to having to open lots of store pages) that my Freebie was actually "more valuable" (i.e. higher MSRP) than my Paid option on 12 out of the 30 days! ETA: And the same price (or maybe xx.95 instead of xx.99) on 4 other days.

    I also see that the system reckoned my punch tier as 0 on the final day when I only (eventually and very late in the day) got offered a pay option. Since my punches the days before were clearly sbown as 3, that's actually technically impossible! (But explains the lack of freebie).

    I've saved that page as a text file for future reference.

    Post edited by MelanieL on
  • MissLeahMissLeah Posts: 216
    edited January 4

    Luckydraft said:

    You have your full list of items (free & paid, irrespective of what you chose) here: daz3d.com/customer/deals/advent/history.

    surprise Awesome! Thanks for sharing that! I copied all of my advent data into my spreadsheet, so I have it all together.

    Here are my updated ranges (though only the SKU ranges changed slightly, not the MSRP ranges):

    Free:

    • SKU - 59237 to 83990
    • MSRP - $15.95 to $23.95

    Paid:

    • SKU - 84982 to 92149
    • MSRP - $16.99 to $29.95
    Post edited by MissLeah on
  • kprkpr Posts: 326

    SilverGirl said:

    ...

    Overall it was also noted that items added to one's WL during December often showed up a couple days later. It might be that the coding prioritizes recent adds. This is based on the thought that if, say, 120 is the cutoff and you dip to 115, add 5, the odds of getting one of those 5 (vs. the other 115) should still be low enough it wouldn't be that consistently observed. From personal experience, my WL never dipped low enough to get offered non-WL items, but things added still showed up a couple days later, which would support the theory.

    ...

    For 20 days I got 0 FREEBIE items from my WL. I did get Paid-For options almost every day.

    It's unlikely I had more than 40 eligible items on my list (in total)

    On Day 20 - having chatted with @joanna - I added 50 "plants" DO (and MJF) from the lower 60-70 end of the  sku range.

    From Day-21 to Day 31, I got one of those plant-items - as a freebie - every single day.

    I don't think 120 is a required number - for a single nor for both categories. You do need "a reasonable number", or some supplementary randomisation will occur, but I'd say 40 (for each of the sku ranges) was more than enough given this (admittedly slightly anecdotal) evidense? 

  • SilverGirlSilverGirl Posts: 3,065
    edited January 5

    kpr said:

    SilverGirl said:

    ...

    Overall it was also noted that items added to one's WL during December often showed up a couple days later. It might be that the coding prioritizes recent adds. This is based on the thought that if, say, 120 is the cutoff and you dip to 115, add 5, the odds of getting one of those 5 (vs. the other 115) should still be low enough it wouldn't be that consistently observed. From personal experience, my WL never dipped low enough to get offered non-WL items, but things added still showed up a couple days later, which would support the theory.

    ...

    For 20 days I got 0 FREEBIE items from my WL. I did get Paid-For options almost every day.

    It's unlikely I had more than 40 eligible items on my list (in total)

    On Day 20 - having chatted with @joanna - I added 50 "plants" DO (and MJF) from the lower 60-70 end of the  sku range.

    From Day-21 to Day 31, I got one of those plant-items - as a freebie - every single day.

    I don't think 120 is a required number - for a single nor for both categories. You do need "a reasonable number", or some supplementary randomisation will occur, but I'd say 40 (for each of the sku ranges) was more than enough given this (admittedly slightly anecdotal) evidense? 

    An interesting factor to note here is that you were near the end of the month for this, about 2/3 of the way through. 40x3 = 120, so maybe 120 would be more as a target for the beginning of the month? Rounding to about 10 days left, that'd be a guess that the system needs roughly 4 options per day per category. 
     

    It's interesting data in any event... thank you for sharing.

     

    ETA: wait,,, by this math, if you had 4 items on the last day it sould be enough, and I'm not sure that's true. This is what happens when I post before coffee.

    Post edited by SilverGirl on
  • FrankTheTankFrankTheTank Posts: 1,506

    Luckydraft said:

    You have your full list of items (free & paid, irrespective of what you chose) here: daz3d.com/customer/deals/advent/history.
    You can collect the data manually from there or just use this quick&dirty thing I created to build a summary from that data (you'll need to copy paste it manually).

    My summary:

    0 punches
    Free range: (nothing)
    Paid range: 50847 - 50847 | MSRP: $19.95 - $19.95

    1 punches
    Free range: 23975 - 23975 | MSRP: $16.95 - $16.95
    Paid range: 47761 - 47761 | MSRP: $15.95 - $15.95

    2 punches
    Free range: 50443 - 50471 | MSRP: $15.95 - $19.95
    Paid range: 61911 - 63371 | MSRP: $20.95 - $22.95

    3 punches
    Free range: 57429 - 83459 | MSRP: $11.95 - $24.95
    Paid range: 83578 - 92403 | MSRP: $11.95 - $26.99

    Summary
    Free:
    * $11.95 - $24.95
    * SKU 23975 - 83459

    Paid:
    * $11.95 - $26.99
    * SKU 47761 - 92403

    thanks for that, here's mine which literally backs up what i said for people too lazy to look at data objectively:

    1 punches

    Free range: 16841 - 31393 | MSRP: $10.95 - $16.95
    Paid range: 56547 - 57551 | MSRP: $15.95 - $19.95

    2 punches

    Free range: 33649 - 57089 | MSRP: $15.95 - $19.95
    Paid range: 65785 - 81420 | MSRP: $10.94 - $24.95

    3 punches

    Free range: 62329 - 83424 | MSRP: $16.95 - $24.95
    Paid range: 80750 - 92155 | MSRP: $11.95 - $34.95

     

     

    I also have all my data from last year where I had mostly 1 Punch the whole time. And that calendar was a disaster last year, about 80% not from my wishlist because no one emphasized the importance of maintaining 3 punches last year. Just like this year they only cared about SKU and price range. So you have people maintaining 3 Punches telling others that Punches don't matter, lol. Its dishonest.

    At the top of the calendar this year it said something like "more Punches equal better selection" but we still have people in denial of this, even with the data to prove it.  

     

  • FizzleMythFizzleMyth Posts: 42

    Thanks to Luckydraft posting the link to https://www.daz3d.com/customer/deals/advent/history , I was able to figure out my data for the Advent calendar:

    I had 3 days of 2 punches, the rest at 3 (except the error on the last day, which should have been 3).

    2 punches (3 days):

    Free: SKU: 37135-44273, MSRP: $17.95 - $19.95
    Deal: SKU: 59025-83213, MSRP: $17.95 - $24.95

    3 punches (27 days):

    Free: SKU: 58159-83399, MSRP: $15.95-$24.95
    Deal: SKU: 83431-92596, MSRP: $9.95-$29.99

    All but one deal MSRP were $16.95+.
    All but one deal SKU were 80000+.

    0 punches (the error on the last day of the calendar, December 31):

    Free: not offered
    Deal: SKU: 36929, MSRP: $16.95

    Taken in isolation, the above suggests that SKU range may have been determined by both the free vs. deal choice, and the tiers (number of punches).

     

  • LuckydraftLuckydraft Posts: 0

    MelanieL said:

    It allowed me to see easily (compared to having to open lots of store pages) that my Freebie was actually "more valuable" (i.e. higher MSRP) than my Paid option on 12 out of the 30 days! ETA: And the same price (or maybe xx.95 instead of xx.99) on 4 other days.

    Yes, I didn't see any correlation with MSRP betwen freebie and paid. I'm pretty sure they don't factor in MSRP other than for limits, at least from my data. I imagine the algorithm is relatively simple, something like Enough items in [free SKU range below max MSRP] in wishlist? > You get a freebie from wishlist and separately Enough items in [paid SKU range below max MSRP] in wishlist? > You get a paid option from wishlist

    Of course, only having my own list for reference but towards the end of the sale I only had something like 5-10 items within the free SKU range (or what my guess was for that range, somewhere in low 80k), and one day I got from wishlist, next day I didn't get, then I added 3 items and I got another one again, so this year the threshold was probably somewhere around at least 10 qualifying items to get something from your wishlist.

  • SilverGirlSilverGirl Posts: 3,065
    edited January 5

    @joanna - here's the official. I know some of it is a repeat from your first post, but I figured I'd just be thorough so nobody had to jump back and forth. If you start another list next year, feel free to grab as much of this as you like... but I'd definitely vote to keep your good vibes clauses in there. 

    -----

    SILVERGIRL'S SUMMARY OF DATA & OBSERVATIONS

    First, a disclaimer:
    A perfect blueprint is impossible without getting our hands on the Daz selection code. The code is presumably random (within its parameters), and if it’s picking from WLs, it can only work with what people put on there to begin with, which would impact individual experiences. 

    With that acknowledged, we work with what we've got, and it makes a starting place for anyone who wants to maximize their chances of getting offered something they'd be happy getting, or trouble-shoot when they're running into problems. 

    Like the infamous quote goes, "They're more of what you'd call... guidelines." Free will exists, and folk are welcome to use these observations, or not. 


    General observations:

    • Eligible items: Selections offered were all Daz Originals, no Daz+ items, within a particular price and SKU range (see data in the next section, called out separately for ease of reference). 
    • Wishlist vs not: The base code seems to look first at how many eligible items are on your WL. If you have enough items, it picks from your WL. If not, it picks from all eligible items in the store. 
    • How much is enough?: Estimates are varied for how many are needed in each category to reliably get offerings from the WL. Possibly 40, possibly 120, possibly somewhere in between. If you want to be safe, more is better. If you're not getting them, you don't have enough. (This last part was proven frequently over the course of the sale.)
    • Recently added items: Many people reported getting recently WL’ed items a day or two later, even if they already had a considerable WL selection. It's possible that recent adds are weighted in the code.
    • Category mix: Mix of items across categories seemed diverse for folk who had that mix available. 
    • Quick-grab: Wishlisted Quick Grab items sometimes turned up in the paid option, which raised their price for a day. This could be either good or bad depending on one's strategy.
    • Punches: Some people from personal experience say the number of punches has an impact on what is offered in each category, some from personal experience say they don't. IMHO the sample size of data is far too small to say for sure that they do, given the other confounding factors mentioned in the disclaimer. 
    • Yearly shift: There have been observations of a shift in most-recent dates of the free/paid from last year to this. This could be genuine shift or luck of the draw, given the overlap of SKUs in the two categories. So the ranges next year might be different. Or... not.
    • It starts before it starts: Free offerings are based on having made a purchase recently (definitions of "recently" do not seem to be the same from one year to the next). When the calendar opens, it's already counting whether you've made a purchase "recently" to decide whether you get a freebie the first day. So it might be a good idea to make a purchase in the days leading up to ensure that happens. Generally the minimum requirement is $1. 
    • Previous years vs. this one: Caution is warranted in including data from previous years to draw conclusions on how this year's calender worked (or didn't). They might have reused the same code. They might not have. Also, this year went pretty smoothly (except for the Dec 31 Debacle), and other years didn't, so I'd say they tweaked at least something, which has the potential to skew data. Of course, this also applies in using these observations to inform next year's decisions, but... well, at least it's a starting point for those seeking one.
    • Strategy note: Adding “sacrifice” items to the WL is a strategy to consider even if they're not something you’d otherwise add... for example (using easy numbers) if the cutoff is 100, and you drop to 95, adding 5 sacrifice items gives you a 95% chance of getting something you want, as opposed to having a chance of 95 items out of the entire eligible pool of the Daz store. (If recent adds really are weighted, these numbers would be off, but it at least still keeps you out of the general pool.)
    • Strategy note: getting low on things to add? A lot of people pick shaders or pose sets. Many people also wishlist component parts of bundles they'd like, as getting parts for free now would reduce the bundle price down the line. (And also, better this than a texture for an outfit you'd never buy.)

     

    Objective data:

    Free:

    • MSRP: $13.95 - $24.95
    • SKU: 20500-83990
    • Release dates (based on SKU readme files): 11/15/2014 - 12/15/2021

    Paid:

    • MSRP: $11.95 - $29.95 generally, with extremely rare sightings of $34.95 items
    • SKU: 51693-92596
    • Release dates (based on SKU readme files): 4/24/2018 - 11/30/2023

    Note on objective data:

    @Luckydraft shared a cool utility in https://www.daz3d.com/forums/discussion/comment/9414686/#Comment_9414686 and I want to call it out with massive kudos. Unfortunately, as not everyone used it, and it doesn't list how many data points are in each punch category, me breaking anything down here to a more granular level would have caused my statistics prof a very large frowny face. Maybe next year? 

     

    Closing thoughts:

    I want to thank @joanna for starting this thread -- it's been fun to have a consolidated space to share our finds and strategies to help everyone get the most out of their calendar experience. Hopefully we'll all be able to gather again next year for another round of bounty.

    Now go play with your toys!!! laugh

    ----

    ...and with that, I sign off. See you around on the other threads!

    Post edited by SilverGirl on
  • emanuela1emanuela1 Posts: 969

    SilverGirl said:

    Wow, thanks for the data and detailed accountings, everyone! I'll still accept more, but preliminary summary below. I'm just going by the commonly shared data as the other breakdowns -- while awesome!! -- weren't consistently enough provided to be able to generalize. Also, info's still there in original posts if folk want to look.

     

    Free:

    • $13.95 - $24.95
    • SKU 20500-83990
    • the majority seemed to be in the SKU 5x-7x range (possibly due to what was on WL's)
    • one person mentioned that their most recent free item was released at the beginning of Dec 2021 and they remembered getting it the previous year as a paid option, so it's possible/likely for some shift to happen in the offerings. However, there's also overlap in the SKUs offered between the two catgories, so that could account for it as well.

    Paid:

    • $11.95 - $29.95
    • SKU 51693-92507
    • the majority seemed to be in the SKU 8x range (possibly due to what was on WL's)
    • most recent noted to be released at the end of November 2023
    • One person mentioned an item at $34.95, but it was in the Outlet at the time. They said it was the only time that happened. No one else reported anything that high, so for future planning I'd stick to the $30 or under mark.

     

    Overall it was noted that the minimum level of eligible items to get an offering from WL seemed to be about 120. @emanuela, this number was from your post; could you clarify if that was 120 total or 120 for each category?

    Overall it was also noted that items added to one's WL during December often showed up a couple days later. It might be that the coding prioritizes recent adds. This is based on the thought that if, say, 120 is the cutoff and you dip to 115, add 5, the odds of getting one of those 5 (vs. the other 115) should still be low enough it wouldn't be that consistently observed. From personal experience, my WL never dipped low enough to get offered non-WL items, but things added still showed up a couple days later, which would support the theory.

    Overall folk who were getting WL-related offerings noted that it was a good mix of categories. So it's *likely* the coding doesn't have a priority for one type of item over another after the initial "on your WL" requirement is met. (I find it unlikely that the coding would involve the level of complexity to ensure diversity, so I'm guessing a random pick from a reasonably diverse wishlist would create reasonable diversity.)

    I meant 120 overall, trying to keep the two pools balanced with roughly the same number of items, lower skus and prices for freebies, and higher skus and prices for the $2.99 ​​ones, but it's a rough estimate.
    I, like others, noticed that items added to the list during the period seemed to take precedence over those added previously. It also seems to me that the number of punches influences the selection somewhat. These are personal observations, which may not have a scientific basis, but it seems to me that the main factor is the number of eligible items, then how recently they were added, with priority given to the most recent ones, and finally the number of punches. 

  • joannajoanna Posts: 2,299

    SilverGirl thank you for the compilation! Your final report is now added to the first post (and linked back as well).

    Thank you everyone for participating, sharing your information, and trying to keep this thread exciting and positive! Without you, it would be just a sad, single post.

    And hopefully, we get to do it again next December. :)

  • miladyderyni_173d399f47miladyderyni_173d399f47 Posts: 2,480

    This was lots of fun. Except for the 31st. :( And my own brief pang, upon discovering* that I would have ended with 4, not just 3,  of the 5 items in the Reindeer Bundle if I'd made a different choice on December 18. But I got over it fast because I got so many other goodies.

     

    *Via https://www.daz3d.com/customer/deals/advent/history

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