OT Update 2: Nvidia & AMD about to lose a lot of sales from cryptominers?

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  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221
    kyoto kid said:
    Kitsumo said:
    kyoto kid said:
    Kitsumo said:
    kyoto kid said:

    ..meanwhile back to the topic. 

    Interesting news. Time will only tell if Ethereum and Monero miners see the new ASICs as a more solid hardware investment and if the hit will be big enough to get GPU prices back in line.

    At best I see this happening in Q1, maybe Q2 of next year. as miners will still look to squeeze as much return out of their investment in GPU cards before making the switch and disposing of them on the resale market. By then we will be looking at the successor to Pascal (whatever Nvidia plans to call it) most likely with a price bump due to the new technology along with continued shortage of memory chips and wafers. 

    I wouldn't expect to see a new 8 GB GTX card priced under 400$ like the 1070 was, with 11 maybe 12 GB remaining the VRAM cap for the the consumer line even given the boost to Nvidia's top end Quadro card (most likely the Volta replacement for the P5000 will continue to have 16 GB but be upgraded to HBM2 memory and have Tensor cores as well as NVLink compatibility along with a price increase).

    Well, Monero already made a change in it's algorithm to avoid ASIC use, so there's no saying they can't do it again. And the Ethereum creators specifically said they want their currency mined on GPUs which everyone can afford, as opposed to only people rich enough to buy ASICs cornering the market. So it looks like they're prepared to do whatever it takes to prevent ASIC mining. But at least the ETH price is still dropping. It's at it's lowest since the surge started in December, and profitability is at an all time low. Prices should start to fall soon, hopefully.

    I can't decide between getting a 1080ti now or waiting to see what the new cards look like. I don't know if they will be that big of a leap over the current cards. Plus how long after the xx70/xx80 release are we going to have to wait for Ti versions? Plus availability. Lots of frustrated gamers have been waiting to buy for about 7 months now. This could be a long summer.

    ...what I mentioned was a "best case scenario" however I am still more inclined to agree with your outlook that ETH and Monero miners (as well as whatever new coins become "hot") will continue using GPUs.  This indeed poses a bleak future for us for as card prices will continue to remain artificially high due to demand outpacing supply.  This is why I feel the affordability window has been closed and will be for a while to come.

    For the moment just biding my time working with 3DL until Octane 4 is released.  Interestingly, in stepping back,  I find I am enjoying this again, not having to wait countless hours to see the results.

    I can't predict what the crypto guys are going to do. I know it's pretty much unprofitable to mine with just about any card as you can see here(you can plug in different cards and see the expected profit). So unless someone has free electricity, its unprofitable to mine Ethereum for now. The question is how many miners will stubbornly continue buying cards, hoping the ETH price goes back up. I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, I guess I'm just trying not to get my hopes up too high.

    I just realized something new. I used to buy a $150 card every three or four years. Now I'm considering a $900 card. Is this going to be the new normal? I guess the technology is advancing. I can look at pretty pictures while I eat my peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and huddle around my pc for warmth. During the housing bubble, Home Depot was rumored to be introducing a home equity line of credit so you could shop in their stores and charge it directly to your HELOC. Maybe Nvidia will have to try that so we can afford their cards. Either that or we all work for them and get paid in cards.cheeky

    ...not a being "Debbie Downer' at all. People who believe they can get what they think is "free money" will pursue it even if it ends up costing them more in the long run (look at chronic gamblers).  To them the possibility of a big payout blinds them to the investment cost. I see this whole situation is digressing to little more than a new form of gambling, hoping that like what happened in late December another spike in value will occur (ETH also rose considerably as well just not to the ridiculous high that Bticoin did).  Maybe the novelty will eventually wear off (of course I had hoped the same would have occurred in the case of SUVs, so much for that) and people will go back to their normal lives again.

    We can only hope.

    Man... don't get me started on SUVs. I rember seeing a few in the 70s-80s when I was a kid. All of a sudden they became a status symbol to let people know "I can afford to waste gas" and "I'm too manly for a minivan." It's the reason all our cars look like armored personnel carriers, the side impact standards to prevent a bumper from hitting you in the head means that car doors are ridiculously high and windows get smaller and smaller. Every car made today is about 500 lbs heavier with bracing to protect us from SUVs and oversize pickups. No wonder automakers have to cheat on efficiency tests. Alright. I feel better. Sorry guys.

    Anyway, I see a few more 1080tis in the $900 range. It's going to be a slow journey. Lots of gamers with money saved up waiting to buy as soon as the price drops a little. And retailers aren't about to lower prices as long as people are buying at the current level. I'd like to grab a 1080ti before the inventory runs out. If Nvidia stopped selling the cards, then they probably stopped shipping the chips too.

    I want to wait and see what the next series will look like, but I don't think it will be as huge of a leap as the 10 series was. The last card I saw make that big of an impact was the 480. I don't rember Kepler or Maxwell getting that much fanfare. Those "must have it" cards only seem to come along every half decade or so. The 200 series had one, the 480 was one and the 1080/1080ti is one. If the 11(or 20) series has one, it will be pretty unusual. I'm hoping for it, of course.

  • AllenArtAllenArt Posts: 7,175
    edited March 2018

    "Proud owner of a Dodge Durango"

    And I would be, even if I didn't need it to carry walkers and wheelchairs. It's big enough to haul them and cheaper than a custom van and we can afford the gas...  :P

    As to the original subject of the thread, I think I can afford to keep my 6 gig 980ti for another year or three, or as long as it holds out. I'm not in any hurry that I have to have my images finish immediately, so a few hours is no skin off my nose ;). It would be NICE to have a card with more ram, or instant satisfaction, but not particularly necessary ;).

    Laurie

    Post edited by AllenArt on
  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221

    My 4 gig is ok for now. I don't render as much as I used to anyway; I've got other issues going on. As for the instant denoising thing, I kind of like waiting for my renders, it gives me a sense of accomplishment. Plus, Huang (in his keynote speech) said the denoising is just predicting what those pixels are going to be, based on the available pixels already rendered. So a denoised image will be good enough to see if you need to make any changes or whatever, but probably won't look as good as a finished render.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,851
    AllenArt said:

    "Proud owner of a Dodge Durango"

    And I would be, even if I didn't need it to carry walkers and wheelchairs. It's big enough to haul them and cheaper than a custom van and we can afford the gas...  :P

    As to the original subject of the thread, I think I can afford to keep my 6 gig 980ti for another year or three, or as long as it holds out. I'm not in any hurry that I have to have my images finish immediately, so a few hours is no skin off my nose ;). It would be NICE to have a card with more ram, or instant satisfaction, but not particularly necessary ;).

    Laurie

    ...at least for you it serves a purpose and I have no issue with that. 

    It's when the likes of Lincoln, Cadillac, Mercedes, BMW, Maserati, Porsche (which I see a lot of where I live), and yes, even Laborghini and Bentley  jump on the bandwagon which is where I have some serious reservations (hopefully Rolls Royce will at least have some restraint). These are not designed for utilitarian purposes.

    ...but I digress.

  • CypherFOXCypherFOX Posts: 3,401

    Greetings,

    See, without the SUV, we wouldn't have the Crossover Vehicles, which I happen to think are the perfect size vehicle for a small family.

    --  Morgan

     

  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221
    edited March 2018

    Way to start the day!

    cryptocurrency heat map

    I'm not usually happy to see a screen full of red, but this makes me all giddy. Oh, and the "newly listed" 1080ti page on Ebay is lit up. Good times.

    HeatMap29Mar.jpg
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    Post edited by Kitsumo on
  • AllenArtAllenArt Posts: 7,175
    Kitsumo said:

    Way to start the day!

    cryptocurrency heat map

    I'm not usually happy to see a screen full of red, but this makes me all giddy. Oh, and the "newly listed" 1080ti page on Ebay is lit up. Good times.

    LOL

    11.3 percent? ouch ;)

  • kyoto kid said:
    AllenArt said:

    "Proud owner of a Dodge Durango"

    And I would be, even if I didn't need it to carry walkers and wheelchairs. It's big enough to haul them and cheaper than a custom van and we can afford the gas...  :P

    As to the original subject of the thread, I think I can afford to keep my 6 gig 980ti for another year or three, or as long as it holds out. I'm not in any hurry that I have to have my images finish immediately, so a few hours is no skin off my nose ;). It would be NICE to have a card with more ram, or instant satisfaction, but not particularly necessary ;).

    Laurie

    ...at least for you it serves a purpose and I have no issue with that. 

    It's when the likes of Lincoln, Cadillac, Mercedes, BMW, Maserati, Porsche (which I see a lot of where I live), and yes, even Laborghini and Bentley  jump on the bandwagon which is where I have some serious reservations (hopefully Rolls Royce will at least have some restraint). These are not designed for utilitarian purposes.

    ...but I digress.

    While I'm not sure about the rest, the Cadillac Escalade is simply a Chevrolet Tahoe with a modified front end and different trim panels and emblems.
  • ImagoImago Posts: 5,658
    Kitsumo said:

    Way to start the day!

    cryptocurrency heat map

    I'm not usually happy to see a screen full of red, but this makes me all giddy. Oh, and the "newly listed" 1080ti page on Ebay is lit up. Good times.

    Sorry for the miners, but... YAY! laugh

  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221

    I just saw the first 1080ti for under $900 that I've seen in months.smiley

    I can't say I feel too bad for miners. The way I see it, they fall into 3 categories.

    1. People who bought their card for gaming or a hobby (like rendering). Once the price of ETH went up, they decided to mine on the side to make a little extra money. The price drop won't hurt them because they can still use the card for its original purpose.

    2. People who maxed out their credit card to buy all the remaining high end cards at the local Best Buy. Screw those guys.

    3. People who already had a ton of money and now have an entire room of their house filled with racks of 1080tis. Screw those guys.

    Those Ebay cards will find buyers eventually, and hopefully it will take some pressure off new card prices. On a similar topic, there are some pretty steep sales on mining equipment online. Is anyone planning to build a rendering rig? Personally I don't care for the open air design, but like the idea of having 4 or 6 cards in one machine.

  • bluejauntebluejaunte Posts: 1,990
    Kitsumo said:

    I just saw the first 1080ti for under $900 that I've seen in months.smiley

    I can't say I feel too bad for miners. The way I see it, they fall into 3 categories.

    1. People who bought their card for gaming or a hobby (like rendering). Once the price of ETH went up, they decided to mine on the side to make a little extra money. The price drop won't hurt them because they can still use the card for its original purpose.

    2. People who maxed out their credit card to buy all the remaining high end cards at the local Best Buy. Screw those guys.

    3. People who already had a ton of money and now have an entire room of their house filled with racks of 1080tis. Screw those guys.

    Those Ebay cards will find buyers eventually, and hopefully it will take some pressure off new card prices. On a similar topic, there are some pretty steep sales on mining equipment online. Is anyone planning to build a rendering rig? Personally I don't care for the open air design, but like the idea of having 4 or 6 cards in one machine.

    Did something particular happen or why do you conclude some kind of shift has happened just because crypto is down a bit today? It goes up and down all the time?

  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221
    edited March 2018
    Kitsumo said:

    I just saw the first 1080ti for under $900 that I've seen in months.smiley

    I can't say I feel too bad for miners. The way I see it, they fall into 3 categories.

    1. People who bought their card for gaming or a hobby (like rendering). Once the price of ETH went up, they decided to mine on the side to make a little extra money. The price drop won't hurt them because they can still use the card for its original purpose.

    2. People who maxed out their credit card to buy all the remaining high end cards at the local Best Buy. Screw those guys.

    3. People who already had a ton of money and now have an entire room of their house filled with racks of 1080tis. Screw those guys.

    Those Ebay cards will find buyers eventually, and hopefully it will take some pressure off new card prices. On a similar topic, there are some pretty steep sales on mining equipment online. Is anyone planning to build a rendering rig? Personally I don't care for the open air design, but like the idea of having 4 or 6 cards in one machine.

    Did something particular happen or why do you conclude some kind of shift has happened just because crypto is down a bit today? It goes up and down all the time?

    Ethereum (the dominant GPU mined currency) is already lower than it was during the Feb 6 'flash crash'. The Ethereum system adjusts the mining difficulty according to how much is being mined. When the price spiked in Dec-Jan, the difficulty rose to match. Now the price has fallen to one third of what it was then, but the difficulty is still high, so it's unprofitable for most miners unless they have free electricity.

    Anyone who is still mining now (at normal US electric rates) is barely making a profit or even operating at a loss, holding on to their coins waiting for prices to go back up. The hashrate is still high, for some reason, so that may be people outside the US or just people still mining and hoping to sell their coins later. It's definitely leveling off and not moving higher, so people aren't buying cards.

    The price isn't likely to go back up unless people really decide to start speculating (betting) on the currency again. Venders are dropping BTC and ETH. The only reason to buy it (aside from illegal stuff) is you hope someone else buys it after you and you can sell at a higher price. Smoke and mirrors only last so long. Eventually everything succumbs to market forces, whether it's stocks, baseball cards, beanie babies, houses, Star Wars collectibles, etc. That's my opinion of course.

    Edit: What I'm trying to say is I don't think miners will start buying cards again until the price comes up (a lot) or difficulty comes back down.

    stock bubble

    Eth price.jpg
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    Eth difficulty.jpg
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    Eth hashrate.jpg
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    ETH profitability.jpg
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    Post edited by Kitsumo on
  • bluejauntebluejaunte Posts: 1,990

    Cool. Aren't there a ton of other coins to mine with GPU though?

  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221

    Yes, and I'm not doing the technical analysis on all of them. I'm not that much of a nerd. The heat map is from https://bitgur.com/map and the charts are from bitinfocharts.com if you want to go for it. Looking at another chart, the total market cap for all coins went from $830 billion in January to around $279 billion today, so I think investors are starting to move on to something else.

    whattomine.com lists 52 GPU minable coins but I'm sure there are more than that.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,851
    edited March 2018

    ...nice analysis. 

    One other "coin" gaining in popularity is Monero which is also GPU mineable and I wouldn't be surprised should they will gravitate towards that.  Part of me wonders with the profusion of cryptocoins, any one of which that could become the next Bitcoin or ETH given the right circumstances, if we will ever see the end of this as the lure of money often compromises common sense.

    [Nvidia store 1070 status, still "out of stock".]

    [Lowest price on Net: ebay 449$ ASUS Refurbished]

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221
    edited March 2018

    Thanks. I don't know if I would bet on those small coins, even if I was a miner. They're more volatile than BTC and ETH, so they rise and fall faster. Any coins you hold could potentially double within a few days time or they could completely disappear. Like John Oliver pointed out on his show, some coin issues have been nothing more than pump & dump schemes or the classic pyramid scheme getting people to encourage their friends to buy coins while the managers head for the exit. I think it's possible cryptocurrency could be around for a while. But for it to be useful as a currency, it has to not shoot up %1000 in value like BTC and ETH. I don't have anything against people gambling, they just need to be aware that they're gambling. And as long as people want to trade illegal stuff for money, cryptocurrency is safe.

    From the impression I got, Nvidia's 10 series store is shut down for good and they're focused on the 11s.

    When I mentioned Ebay, I was just using that as a gage of how many people are unloading cards. I don't have anything against Ebay, but I don't think I would actually gamble on one of those cards. I'm sure they'll find buyers, though.

    Edit: I haven't seen the 1070, 1070ti, or 1080 drop much at all these past few weeks. Or maybe I missed something. I've only been checking Newegg. $549 for a 1070

    Post edited by Kitsumo on
  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,851

    ...keep in mind the way many people think.  If it seems "free" go for it even if the costs outweigh the benefits.  If this weren't the case, lotteries and casinos would have gone under a long time ago.

  • SixDsSixDs Posts: 2,384

    "Proud owner of a Dodge Durango"

    Got you beat, Laurie. I have an older Ford Escape, while the wife has a Jeep Patriot . Of course, we live in a small community in the middle of nowhere where we get real winter, so we do have some practical need. And the Escape gets way better mileage than the full-size pickups I used to have, while the Patriot is a compact SUV and only has a 4 cylinder engine.

    Wait, what was the topic of this thread?

  • nicsttnicstt Posts: 11,715
    edited March 2018
    SixDs said:

    "Proud owner of a Dodge Durango"

    Got you beat, Laurie. I have an older Ford Escape, while the wife has a Jeep Patriot . Of course, we live in a small community in the middle of nowhere where we get real winter, so we do have some practical need. And the Escape gets way better mileage than the full-size pickups I used to have, while the Patriot is a compact SUV and only has a 4 cylinder engine.

    Wait, what was the topic of this thread?

    ... Er... Something highly volatile; so something that burns something highly volatile is somewhat on topic. :)

    I hope that was clear; erm, that's not clearly volotile. wink

    Post edited by nicstt on
  • AllenArtAllenArt Posts: 7,175
    edited March 2018
    SixDs said:

    "Proud owner of a Dodge Durango"

    Got you beat, Laurie. I have an older Ford Escape, while the wife has a Jeep Patriot . Of course, we live in a small community in the middle of nowhere where we get real winter, so we do have some practical need. And the Escape gets way better mileage than the full-size pickups I used to have, while the Patriot is a compact SUV and only has a 4 cylinder engine.

    Wait, what was the topic of this thread?

    I think we live near you....in the boondocks, between the middle of nowhere. LOL

    Back to our regularly scheduled thread.....

    ;)

    Laurie

    Post edited by AllenArt on
  • tj_1ca9500btj_1ca9500b Posts: 2,057
    edited March 2018

    PSA video from Corsair:

    Stop GPU Abuse

    Post edited by tj_1ca9500b on
  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,851
    edited March 2018

    ...I love the Bitcoin emblem on the bottom of the payment methods.

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • ImagoImago Posts: 5,658

    The picture of that crypto-mine at beginning gave me the creeps. Real creeps!

    Today I went to my favourite computer store to buy a new external hardisk and saw some MSI 1070ti boxes on display. I immediately asked how much for one of those.
    "Oh, no, those boxes are empty, just for decoration. Those GPUs actually are unavailable from all of our suppliers."

    Well, the most I can do is pray to see more and more red in those charts!

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  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221

    I can provide a home for about 3 or 4 cards. No zip ties and wooden frame cases here, an honest to goodness pcie slot waiting for each card. What, we have to pay for them? "For less than the price of a 90' tv each", huh?

    Nevermind

  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221
    Imago said:

    The picture of that crypto-mine at beginning gave me the creeps. Real creeps!

    Today I went to my favourite computer store to buy a new external hardisk and saw some MSI 1070ti boxes on display. I immediately asked how much for one of those.
    "Oh, no, those boxes are empty, just for decoration. Those GPUs actually are unavailable from all of our suppliers."

    Well, the most I can do is pray to see more and more red in those charts!

    The really scary thing is if Nvidia stopped selling the 10 series on their site, does it mean they've stopped making the actual GPU chips (to send to cardmakers)? It's possible that the cards being produced now is all we're going to see until the 11 series launches. I want to buy one so bad. I'm going to be pissed if the 1180 only has 8gb and I have to wait another 6 months for the 1180ti.

    But yes, I love seeing ETH below $400. You should also look at the total market cap. From $800 billion 2 months ago to about $265 billion today. Ouch.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,851
    edited March 2018

    ...I have a bad feeling that is the case as in their store the "Out of Stock" message has replaced the "Remind Me" button for the last couple weeks.

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • KitsumoKitsumo Posts: 1,221
    kyoto kid said:

    ...I have a bad feeling that is the case as in their store the "Out of Stock" message has replaced the "Remind Me" button for the last couple weeks.

    I wasn't watching the other card prices on their site, but a few other people said all of the 10 series changed to "out of stock" on the morning of Huang's keynote address.

    It's kind of odd, since the whole conference was about pro-level and scientific type cards and no mention of the gaming line, so why pull the GTX cards out of the store at that time? They always do crap like this, just to build up excitement.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 41,851

    ...yeah, counting down the time for when Octane 4 is released. At least my 4 GB card will be put to good use.

    I would not doubt that whatever the next series of GTX is called when it's released, there will be some form of price hike just because of newer technology and the ongoing wafer/memory shortage.

  • ghastlycomicghastlycomic Posts: 2,531

    SUVs took off in the late 80s and 90s because they were exempt from the same emissions and mileage regulations that station wagons had. That's the reason why the SUV killed off the station wagon, car manufacturers could take advantage of regulation loopholes to offer the consumer a crappier alternative.

  • SixDsSixDs Posts: 2,384

    Back on topic (sort of).

    New user Raymand over in the New Users forum raised a point that some here might be interested in - see his third post on this page:

    https://www.daz3d.com/forums/discussion/242676/top-dreamlight-products#latest

    I'm not sure anyone will take him up on his suggestion, but it might make for a great little mini contest here in this thread, with participation being its own reward.

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