OT: GPU Manufacturers to Increase MSRP, Could Cryptominers next target be CPU's??

ghosty12ghosty12 Posts: 789
edited February 6 in The Commons

Just a heads up we all knew this was going to happen sooner or later, anyway GPU manufacturers are going to increase the MSRP on their video cards, so buying a new card has just got that little bit more expensive.. Especially more so with the GPU cryptomining boom at the moment..

Update: Looks like CPU's could be next to be targetted by cryptominers, especailly AMD's Threadripper CPU's but it looks like all CPU's could end up costing way more than they are worth..

Post edited by ghosty12 on
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Comments

  • outrider42outrider42 Posts: 829

    I'm not worried too much as MSRP if its not a ridiculous hike. I'm more worried about miners jacking up prices. You cannot even find a GPU at a lot of places now. You go to Best Buy, they are sold out. Miners are going in and buying 6 or more cards at once, buying in bulk. Its awful. The mining bubble cannot burst fast enough.

    It is so bad that PC gamers who cannot afford the outrageous prices are actually buying consoles.

    When the bubble does bust, everything will change in a heartbeat. GPUs will suddenly flood the market. And buyers will be picky, very picky, because people don't want GPUs that have been used 24/7 nonstop. So any GPU that looks like it could have been for mining will be a hard sell. Buyers can check the seller history and see they have all these GPUs up for sale. But the problem is how long is that going to take to happen? I had hoped that China banning cryptomining would put a real hurt on it.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644
    edited February 5

    ..exactly, and sellers on sites like ebay are offering GPU cards in 6 lot sets. which only plays to miners as not many  MBs on game or graphics systems have that many expansion slots, particularly for double width cards. 

    This is why I have given up working with Iray and gone back to 3DL in spite of the fact most new content is being released with Iray materials only.

    The only way to put a real hurt on cryptomining is if every nation did so. 

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • ghosty12ghosty12 Posts: 789
    edited February 5

    Exactly, and while I try not to be a vindictive person, I just hope that the cryptominers greed comes back and bites them hard..  As was hoping to get a new system this year, but with the prices as they are that may not happen..

    Post edited by ghosty12 on
  • IceDragonArtIceDragonArt Posts: 9,612

    Well, when the majority of people stop buying because its too expensive then it will stop.  The only way for this kind of stuff to come to and end is people just. stop. buying. it. 

    But too many people aren't willing to, heaven forbid, not have everything right this second.

  • Kevin SandersonKevin Sanderson Posts: 1,166
    edited February 5

    Well, I can wait. SInce the stuff for 3DL is coming out, no need to use Iray more than once in while. My computer is pretty good and has 32 GB  of system ram so no need to worry about the hassle of working with limited memory on a GPU.

    Post edited by Kevin Sanderson on
  • AllenArtAllenArt Posts: 2,286

    There's talk now that Threadrippers may be used for mining as well....which means ridiculous prices and shortages on those as well. 

    Laurie

  • nicsttnicstt Posts: 6,115
    edited February 5

    This price increase was on the cards when Nvidia changed the TOS to prevent commercial customers using them inplace of what Nvidia would rather sell them: namely much higher priced quadro cards.

    ... And of course, Crypto-mining

    Post edited by nicstt on
  • IceDragonArtIceDragonArt Posts: 9,612
    nicstt said:

    This price increase was on the cards when Nvidia changed the TOS to prevent commercial customers using them inplace of what Nvidia would rather sell them: namely much higher priced quadro cards.

    ... And of course, Crypto-mining

    Great way to drive your competitors to a different graphics card. 

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644

    Well, I can wait. SInce the stuff for 3DL is coming out, no need to use Iray more than once in while. My computer is pretty good and has 32 GB  of system ram so no need to worry about the hassle of working with limited memory on a GPU.

    ...pretty much the decision I made as well. Will soon have 24 GB (most my old system can support) as well as a 6 core Xeon (4 more CPU threads at about the same frequency as my current first generation i7).  Already getting render times around the 10 min range with IBL master even for big scenes.

    Keeping watch for Wowie's "super ultra mega" 3DL shader system.

  • outrider42outrider42 Posts: 829

    Well, when the majority of people stop buying because its too expensive then it will stop.  The only way for this kind of stuff to come to and end is people just. stop. buying. it. 

    But too many people aren't willing to, heaven forbid, not have everything right this second.

    There doesn't seem to be anything stopping miners from buying. They can just sell the card at the same high price (or even higher,) so the initial price is not even an issue to them. Even if miners are a minority, the fact that they buy so many cards at once it is outpacing all production. They are going to crash the entire industry at some point, this is not sustainable growth.
  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644
    nicstt said:

    This price increase was on the cards when Nvidia changed the TOS to prevent commercial customers using them inplace of what Nvidia would rather sell them: namely much higher priced quadro cards.

    ... And of course, Crypto-mining

    ...the memory shortage (which I read about on other sources) is a part of the cost increase though not to warrant a +100% to in some cases +200% increase over the original MSRP.  That is due to demand for cards far outpacing supply because of the "Cryptomining Rush of 2017/18". 

    Were I in the professional CG leagues, I wouldn't consider anything below a Titan for one reason, the ability to turn WDDM off (W10's memory reserving "feature").  This option is not available on consumer cards.  Quadro cards are also more robust as they are designed for long duration operation at high performance (which is what rendering requires).  Consumer cards are primarily geared for gaming where frame rate is important (hence higher core counts, clock speeds, and SLI for multiple cards) and only need to perform at peak output for very short intervals at a time.  As we all know, higher VRAM is far more important for CG rendering than gaming, hence Quadro GPU cards tend to have higher VRAM maxims than consumer ones (would not be surprised to see the V6000 go to 32 GB of GDDR6 or even HBM2).

    Were I at the pro level, the decision between a full 16 GB available VRAM on a P5000 vs. 9.1 GB available VRAM on a 1080 Ti would be a no brainer even though that Quadro costs a bit more (currently not that much given some of the prices I've seen for 1080 Ti's).

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644
    nicstt said:

    This price increase was on the cards when Nvidia changed the TOS to prevent commercial customers using them inplace of what Nvidia would rather sell them: namely much higher priced quadro cards.

    ... And of course, Crypto-mining

    Great way to drive your competitors to a different graphics card. 

    ...AMD is not immune from this either. 

  • bradrgbradrg Posts: 521

    My motherboard packed in so I'll be buying a new pc + graphics card soon. Do you think it's worth buying a cheaper card and waiting for the prices to come down, or is this going to carry on into the forseable future? 

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644
    edited February 5

    ...even the "lower end" cards like the 1050 Ti or 6 GB 1060 have gone up in price, in some cases almost double the original MSRP.

    About the only thing that is remaining stable are CPU prices (at the moment) though if it is true that miners are now looking at Threadrippers that may change as well. 

    All for what amounts to the latest "Get Rich Quick" scheme.  At least back in the old days it was primarily pyramid and chain letters (Emails) that could easily be ignored.

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • Peter FulfordPeter Fulford Posts: 1,255

    Well, when the majority of people stop buying because its too expensive then it will stop.  The only way for this kind of stuff to come to and end is people just. stop. buying. it. 

    But too many people aren't willing to, heaven forbid, not have everything right this second.

     

    There doesn't seem to be anything stopping miners from buying. They can just sell the card at the same high price (or even higher,) so the initial price is not even an issue to them. Even if miners are a minority, the fact that they buy so many cards at once it is outpacing all production. They are going to crash the entire industry at some point, this is not sustainable growth.

    The only problem for us renderers (apart from this painful short term supply / price issue) is if cryptocurrency mining leads GPU card design radically away from our needs. Otherwise it's all good. If people buy lots of video cards at high prices, the market (incentivised by profit) will apply more resources to video card supply. Even with continued mining, there will be more and better cards at lower prices. Same as happened with with cars, refrigerators, clothing...

    And if (when) crypto-mining goes pop, there will be a such a glut of new video cards that you won't need to bother buying used.

     

  • srieschsriesch Posts: 3,773

    Samsung is supposedly working on a chip specifically designed for mining.  Perhaps that will ease some of the burden if it is more attractive than the graphics cards, depending on what they intend to put that chip in:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42892380

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644

    Well, when the majority of people stop buying because its too expensive then it will stop.  The only way for this kind of stuff to come to and end is people just. stop. buying. it. 

    But too many people aren't willing to, heaven forbid, not have everything right this second.

     

    There doesn't seem to be anything stopping miners from buying. They can just sell the card at the same high price (or even higher,) so the initial price is not even an issue to them. Even if miners are a minority, the fact that they buy so many cards at once it is outpacing all production. They are going to crash the entire industry at some point, this is not sustainable growth.

    The only problem for us renderers (apart from this painful short term supply / price issue) is if cryptocurrency mining leads GPU card design radically away from our needs. Otherwise it's all good. If people buy lots of video cards at high prices, the market (incentivised by profit) will apply more resources to video card supply. Even with continued mining, there will be more and better cards at lower prices. Same as happened with with cars, refrigerators, clothing...

    And if (when) crypto-mining goes pop, there will be a such a glut of new video cards that you won't need to bother buying used.

     

    ...considering how those cards would have been run beyond their normal operating parameters 24/7 for months on end, not sure I'd buy one.  Just because there would suddenly be a surplus of used cards on the market it would not push prices of brand new cards below their MSRP (particularly as there are a lot of gamers and enthusiasts who have decided to wait until prices fall back to earth). 

    Also if the market responded to the shortage in such a manner as mentioned, we wouldn't be seeing all the "Not In Stock" messages at the various online outlets (including Nvidia).

    Again, the situation is also due in part to a worldwide shortage of memory chips (hence the increase in system memory costs).  If the supply can no longer meet the ongoing manufacturing demand, production rates will be adversely impacted which in turn also contributes to the shortage of GPU cards.

    Basically what we are seeing it is a double barrelled effect of a sub-component shortage coupled with a much higher than anticipated demand for the end product working together.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644
    sriesch said:

    Samsung is supposedly working on a chip specifically designed for mining.  Perhaps that will ease some of the burden if it is more attractive than the graphics cards, depending on what they intend to put that chip in:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-42892380

    ...just hoping this doesn't spread them too thin or divert energy from other operations as Samsung is one of the leading manufacturers of memory chips.

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644

    ...just noticed that even the 3,000$ Titan V cards in the Nvida Store are now indicating a "Notify Me" message.

    Quadro cards are still available though, limit 5 per customer (has that lotto draw happened yet?).

  • Peter FulfordPeter Fulford Posts: 1,255
    edited February 6
    kyoto kid said:
    Just because there would suddenly be a surplus of used cards on the market it would not push prices of brand new cards below their MSRP (particularly as there are a lot of gamers and enthusiasts who have decided to wait until prices fall back to earth). 

     I'm not saying new cards would become cheaper (in a crypto-crash) because of the surplus of used cards (though that would contribute). It would be because of the surplus of new cards. Manufacturers can suggest / recommend prices until they are blue in the face - but buyers decide the value of things. If supply exceeds demand, prices drop.

    kyoto kid said:
    Also if the market responded to the shortage in such a manner as mentioned, we wouldn't be seeing all the "Not In Stock" messages at the various online outlets (including Nvidia).

     I've already mentioned this is the short term situation. They can't just turn a dial 'round to eleven and have more graphics cards come out. Eventually the market will apply more resources to video card production (e.g. see sriech's Samsung story link above) and there will be more supply. This will lower prices.

    kyoto kid said:
    Basically what we are seeing it is a double barrelled effect of a sub-component shortage coupled with a much higher than anticipated demand for the end product working together.

    There's that short term situation again.

     

    Post edited by Peter Fulford on
  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644

    ...well it's been going on since last summer and shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.  Not holding my breath.

    As I mentioned, part of the reason they can't crank more GPU cards out is also due to the shortage of memory chips to put on them.

  • ghosty12ghosty12 Posts: 789

    Made a change to my OP to show that CPU's could be next..

  • Sorry to say, the crypto craze started 4 years ago, it was Radeon back then that was dominent. i do predict it should get better when they create a better device. back in 2014 it was the Asiics mining devices, I have no idea if anything like that is in the works. I do hope so, even though I do trade in crypto currenicies on a small level, I don't want to see that hurt too much, thanks to trading, I can buy Daz content :)  

    I'm kinda scared now though. I got my 1060 in a prebuilt pc, and if it goes, I'm SOL. oh well. It's always a double sharp sword!

     

     

  • kyoto kidkyoto kid Posts: 25,644
    edited February 6

    ...I'm still rendering on the CPU as prices are stupidly insane.  The target I was saving for was a 1070 (which would handle about 75% - 80% of my scenes), but not at 1,000$.  Am on the "wait & see" list on the Nvida site, but like I said, I'm not holding my breath.  Pretty much have ditched Iray and gone back to 3DL because I can get more reasonable render times with fairly high quality.

    Post edited by kyoto kid on
  • McGyverMcGyver Posts: 2,317
    edited February 6

    Bitcoins... Pffft....

    Reminds me of the .com days.

    Just like small children, investors love playing with bubbles... While I can see some form of crypto currency eventually being a stable alternative currency, I don't think the ones we see now are going to be that, unless there is some sort of radical evolution...

    In the meantime these numbskulls are driving up prices for gamers and 3D enthusiasts.

    But I'll let everyone in on a secret...

    I'm currently working on an even better crypto currency... It's based on a complicated system using special acorns which are numbered and given to spiritually enlightened squirrels to bury and then eventually dig up, each person who purchases one acorn (called a wonkel) before it is buried is issued two bananas which are not actually sent to the client, but are given to a specially registered chimpanzee banana attendant who then eats the bananas and writes out a complicated passcode mostly scrawled in poo, which is scanned and then laser etched into the shell of a turtle (called a "foogie") who is placed onto a series of complicated conveyor belts, some of which lead to enclosures with lettuce or others with lava. The surviving foogies (turtles) are then mailed to a crypto bank in Romania (or somewhere secret) where highly trained turtle whispers spin the foogies on a turtle divination board that's sort of like a roulette wheel. The foogie is spun thirteen times and the resulting numbers are multiplied by the number of surviving foogies from the previous night and then divide by 2.003 and that sum dictates the base value of each wonkel issued before 14:00 hours Greenwich time.

    The client is then mailed a specially trained budgie (called a parakeet) who sings them their unique transfer code once before it explodes, which they must then quickly write down in invisible ink in their crypto pass book to redeem their wonkels.

    As you can see it is foolproof.

    My system is based on a physical item, the Wonkel which can be horded or traded, the entire system is based on a bafflingly stupid premise like all real currency, it involves some degree of risk to increase its volatility which drives its demand, it has an ironclad security system involving exploding budgies and invisible ink and the squirrels act as a randomizing factor to keep it real... This creates a complete system that marries the best stupid ideas of both traditional physical asset based currencies and imaginary wish backed crypto currencies.

    Of course in the unlikely event all the foogies end up in lava, the system collapses... Which if you were paying any attention to at all, is clearly mostly almost absolutely sorta fairly impossible.

    In fact one wonkel is probably kinda guaranteed to do nothing but increase 62,000% per attenuated monthly polysegment.

    Not bifurcated yearly amortized disinterest segment, but a real time attenuated MONTHLY polysegment!

    So... All I'm saying is if you don't want to look like the biggest most flatulant idiot on earth, you should get in on this before it goes so big that obnoxious Internet celebrities and Russia billionaires are the only ones who can afford this... Not only that, but by sinking every penny you have into my system you will help drive down the cost of GPUs and be able to afford a really good one when the Bitcoin craze pops!

    Win-Win for everybody my peeps!

     

    Post edited by McGyver on
  • GreymomGreymom Posts: 243
    McGyver said:

    Bitcoins... Pffft....

    Reminds me of the .com days.

    Just like small children, investors love playing with bubbles... While I can see some form of crypto currency eventually being a stable alternative currency, I don't think the ones we see now are going to be that, unless there is some sort of radical evolution...

    In the meantime these numbskulls are driving up prices for gamers and 3D enthusiasts.

    But I'll let everyone in on a secret...

    I'm currently working on an even better crypto currency... It's based on a complicated system using special acorns which are numbered and given to spiritually enlightened squirrels to bury and then eventually dig up, each person who purchases one acorn (called a wonkel) before it is buried is issued two bananas which are not actually sent to the client, but are given to a specially registered chimpanzee banana attendant who then eats the bananas and writes out a complicated passcode mostly scrawled in poo, which is scanned and then laser etched into the shell of a turtle (called a "foogie") who is placed onto a series of complicated conveyor belts, some of which lead to enclosures with lettuce or others with lava. The surviving foogies (turtles) are then mailed to a crypto bank in Romania (or somewhere secret) where highly trained turtle whispers spin the foogies on a turtle divination board that's sort of like a roulette wheel. The foogie is spun thirteen times and the resulting numbers are multiplied by the number of surviving foogies from the previous night and then divide by 2.003 and that sum dictates the base value of each wonkel issued before 14:00 hours Greenwich time.

    The client is then mailed a specially trained budgie (called a parakeet) who sings them their unique transfer code once before it explodes, which they must then quickly write down in invisible ink in their crypto pass book to redeem their wonkels.

    As you can see it is foolproof.

    My system is based on a physical item, the Wonkel which can be horded or traded, the entire system is based on a bafflingly stupid premise like all real currency, it involves some degree of risk to increase its volatility which drives its demand, it has an ironclad security system involving exploding budgies and invisible ink and the squirrels act as a randomizing factor to keep it real... This creates a complete system that marries the best stupid ideas of both traditional physical asset based currencies and imaginary wish backed crypto currencies.

    Of course in the unlikely event all the foogies end up in lava, the system collapses... Which if you were paying any attention to at all, is clearly mostly almost absolutely sorta fairly impossible.

    In fact one wonkel is probably kinda guaranteed to do nothing but increase 62,000% per attenuated monthly polysegment.

    Not bifurcated yearly amortized disinterest segment, but a real time attenuated MONTHLY polysegment!

    So... All I'm saying is if you don't want to look like the biggest most flatulant idiot on earth, you should get in on this before it goes so big that obnoxious Internet celebrities and Russia billionaires are the only ones who can afford this... Not only that, but by sinking every penny you have into my system you will help drive down the cost of GPUs and be able to afford a really good one when the Bitcoin craze pops!

    Win-Win for everybody my peeps!

     

    Wow!  This sounds way less risky than bitcoin (well, handling dry copper fulminate crystals is probably less risky than bitcoin).   Where do I get some of those special Oak trees to plant in my yard, so I can start breeding the squirrels and building them a cute little monastery so they can become enlightened?   I predict the price of enlightened squirrels will go through the roof!  : )

  • hphoenixhphoenix Posts: 1,133
    Greymom said:
    McGyver said:

    Bitcoins... Pffft....

    Reminds me of the .com days.

    Just like small children, investors love playing with bubbles... While I can see some form of crypto currency eventually being a stable alternative currency, I don't think the ones we see now are going to be that, unless there is some sort of radical evolution...

    In the meantime these numbskulls are driving up prices for gamers and 3D enthusiasts.

    But I'll let everyone in on a secret...

    I'm currently working on an even better crypto currency... It's based on a complicated system using special acorns which are numbered and given to spiritually enlightened squirrels to bury and then eventually dig up, each person who purchases one acorn (called a wonkel) before it is buried is issued two bananas which are not actually sent to the client, but are given to a specially registered chimpanzee banana attendant who then eats the bananas and writes out a complicated passcode mostly scrawled in poo, which is scanned and then laser etched into the shell of a turtle (called a "foogie") who is placed onto a series of complicated conveyor belts, some of which lead to enclosures with lettuce or others with lava. The surviving foogies (turtles) are then mailed to a crypto bank in Romania (or somewhere secret) where highly trained turtle whispers spin the foogies on a turtle divination board that's sort of like a roulette wheel. The foogie is spun thirteen times and the resulting numbers are multiplied by the number of surviving foogies from the previous night and then divide by 2.003 and that sum dictates the base value of each wonkel issued before 14:00 hours Greenwich time.

    The client is then mailed a specially trained budgie (called a parakeet) who sings them their unique transfer code once before it explodes, which they must then quickly write down in invisible ink in their crypto pass book to redeem their wonkels.

    As you can see it is foolproof.

    My system is based on a physical item, the Wonkel which can be horded or traded, the entire system is based on a bafflingly stupid premise like all real currency, it involves some degree of risk to increase its volatility which drives its demand, it has an ironclad security system involving exploding budgies and invisible ink and the squirrels act as a randomizing factor to keep it real... This creates a complete system that marries the best stupid ideas of both traditional physical asset based currencies and imaginary wish backed crypto currencies.

    Of course in the unlikely event all the foogies end up in lava, the system collapses... Which if you were paying any attention to at all, is clearly mostly almost absolutely sorta fairly impossible.

    In fact one wonkel is probably kinda guaranteed to do nothing but increase 62,000% per attenuated monthly polysegment.

    Not bifurcated yearly amortized disinterest segment, but a real time attenuated MONTHLY polysegment!

    So... All I'm saying is if you don't want to look like the biggest most flatulant idiot on earth, you should get in on this before it goes so big that obnoxious Internet celebrities and Russia billionaires are the only ones who can afford this... Not only that, but by sinking every penny you have into my system you will help drive down the cost of GPUs and be able to afford a really good one when the Bitcoin craze pops!

    Win-Win for everybody my peeps!

     

    Wow!  This sounds way less risky than bitcoin (well, handling dry copper fulminate crystals is probably less risky than bitcoin).   Where do I get some of those special Oak trees to plant in my yard, so I can start breeding the squirrels and building them a cute little monastery so they can become enlightened?   I predict the price of enlightened squirrels will go through the roof!  : )

    Squirrels that are enlightened aren't going to bury acorns.  They use them as weapons.  They eat Bagels, already have time-travel technology, and can talk.

     

  • SimonJMSimonJM Posts: 4,517
    edited February 6
    McGyver said:

    ....

    I'm currently working on an even better crypto currency... It's based on a complicated system using special acorns

    ...

     

    Sign me up, who says money does not grw on trees? cheeky

    Post edited by SimonJM on
  • nonesuch00nonesuch00 Posts: 7,121

    Sounds really more like planned shortages like they do with popular children's toys to drive up the price. Eventually the price will crash.

  • ZyloxZylox Posts: 472
    McGyver said:
    I'm currently working on an even better crypto currency...

    I am sitting here eating my Portly Man dinner and wondering how much I can scrape together to invest in your new crypto currency.

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