Digital Art Zone

JoeMamma2000 - 09 January 2013 11:38 PM

http://www.emachineshop.com/

I want my whole apt to be redone with those giant gears like that girl in the video…

I work for a 3D service bureau.  We sell the printers ($1500 to over $250,000) and provide the service to those who only want or need occasional 3D printing.

Unfortunately, a college student who needs a model for a term project may have to pay hundreds or thousands for an appropriately large model. I know this to be true because we have had students inquire about our services, and some have used us to build models.  We are at least 15% less costly than industry average, and the student models were over $800.  That was last June.

Now there are some 3D printers that would have been capable of producing the model that cost $500.  There would have been less than $200 of material used.  If the printers that exist now had been available then, they would have saved money.

3D printers won’t “change the world” and that isn’t something I said.  But, where it makes sense, 3D printing technology will provide positive changes in the way things are done.  Would it not be better to have a generation of children who are actively engaged in development and design?  So what if all they make are toys, they would be using their brains for creativity instead of mindlessly watching TV or playing console and computer games (tho games have their own benefits). 

So while there are lots of prototyping technologies available as you list, these service bureaus are extremely expensive to use.  Extremely expensive.  And it makes sense that they would be costly to use, their equipment is the commercial grade stuff that we sell.  They have to recoup costs.  The point is, with 3D printers available for as little as $500 (and the quality is pretty good. 0.15 mm layer thickness). lots of people will be able to buy them and use them with free software to produce lots of things for a very low price.

What we are seeing here is just the start of the “home 3D printer” movement.  The rate of improvement and price reductions is incredible.  Would I buy one for myself at home?  Probably not, since I get to use the 3D printers at my office.  But, if I lost my job, I would likely buy one of these low cost beasties since I do have clients that pay me money to build them stuff that I design. 

Scouting troups, RC clubs and other groups are likely purchasers of this technology.  Yes, there are RP service bureaus.  Again, I work at one.  But these “clients” don’t need the 16 micron layer thickness that our units provide.  It just doesn’t have to be that good.

One of my prospects asked for a quote on a model.  It was going to cost them $1100.  I checked Shapeways for the cost of the same item built on a lower quality process (FDM, extrusion) and the cost was only $200 less.  Using a plaster technology was still $400.  If our company had a FDM machine, we would have only charged $300 for the model.  Like I said, the online services are VERY expensive.  That would be a prime motivator to buy your own 3D printer IF you don’t need thin layers and IF you will be needing to make other models.  Just think, in less than 4 models and the device will effectively pay for itself.

It might seem odd advocating for the “home” 3D printers when I work for a business that offers this service and concentrates on the higher quality devices, but just like some people buy Porsche, BMW, Benz, and other premium cars, there will also be people who buy general purpose Ford, GM and Dodge vehicles.

And there will be people who don’t see much sense in home 3D printers, well, I don’t see much sense in most rap music.  But there are plenty of rap artists that are not hurting for cash, so that means that there is a market.  Just because something doesn’t make sense to me doesn’t mean it won’t make sense to others.  And if you see the rate of growth in the home 3D market, you will realize that a lot of people see sense in having a home 3D printer.  What will they do with them?  Who knows, who cares.  If your not involved, it just doesn’t matter.  If you are involved or want to be, then it is great.

So, Joe, our opinions don’t really matter.  3D printing technology will continue to improve and develop.  And people will buy them for home use for whatever purpose makes sense to them.  Just based on current trends, it is easy to see that 20% of the population will likely have one within the next decade.  That is solely based on trends, not my nor any other person’s hopes and dreams.  Actually, for my business, I hope that the home maker market fails.  More business for me that way.  But I also see that it is not likely to fail.  Trends indicate that it will keep on going, the pace accelerating, so it is available to just about anyone who wants one.

10 years ago, a 32 inch LCD TV was rare to find in someone’s house.  We have a 46”, and two 32” sets.  What changed? The price.
In the 1940’s few homes had a TV but just about everyone had a radio.  In the 1960’s color TVs were rare, by the 80’s they were common.  Now almost everyone has a TV and probably a LCD one at that.  We are at the beginning of another technology shift.  A change in the game.  And this change may just bring North America back to being inventive, creative and productive.  I doubt that anyone in the USA or Canada would want our economies to stay stagnant. 

Encouraging inventiveness, creativity and production would be a good thing, would you not agree? 

Maybe having these home 3D printers, and the FREE design software can help the process. (Free software such as Sketchup, 123D, Sculptris and even D|S).

So, yes, while the RP services exist - and there will be an ongoing need these commercial services - there will also be a market for home 3D printers; just like in the automotive market.  Some people buy or need premium equipment, others just need general purpose.

And here is an example of a “home” 3D printer being used for commercial purposes in a mainstream industry.

It is being used for the creation of orthotics.

The printer is a 3D Touch, which can be purchased for under $4500 for the two head model, under $4000 for the single head.
Makerbot has a smaller unit for around $2000.
3D Systems has their Cube for around $1200
Solidoodle has a unit for $500.

They all use the same technology.  Differences are in layer thickness, types of material that can be used (the 3D Touch can use 5 different types of plastic) and the build volume.  Could a Solidoodle be used to make orthotics?  Perhaps for people with smaller feet (ie children, petite women).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-20031657?goback=.gmp_2436623.gde_2436623_member_178857226

So, here is a perfect example where a “home” 3D printer is making a major change in a growing and mainstream industry.

The global orthotics market in 2010 was 3 billion dollars.  Yeah, that is not chump change.  3D printed orthotics will be less costly and take far less time to produce than conventional methods.  I call that a game changer in one major industry.  Fast forward 10 years.  You go to the orthopedic clinic, they do their scans and tests, design the orthotic and give you the file.  You go home and print it yourself.  Print several copies, and you have enough for all your shoes.  Material cost?  About $1.25 per cubic inch, or about $10 per orthotic.  That is a far cry from the $300 to $500 one pays in my neck of the woods.

Home Depot sells lots of plastic bits (fittings and such) that are made from ABS.  Home 3D printers use ABS.  Hmm.  Too bad you could not just buy the design and print it at home.  Then again, in 10 years, maybe you will do exactly that.

In 1989 when I worked in the commercial software industry, one of my clients who ran a large computer store asked me if I thought people would buy software via a download system.  I said that with 2400 baud modems, it would take forever and that the business model probably would not catch on.  Oh boy, was I wrong.  I failed to see that there would be improvements in download speeds, I didn’t envision the Internet and high -speed access.  How do we get our DAZ software - download.  How do we get movies and music - download.  Emerging technologies have a way of changing the way we do things.  It has been that way since someone invented the wheel.

Now we have a concrete example how “home” 3D printers are revolutionizing one very important industry.

KorvisBlack - 10 January 2013 01:37 AM

The global orthotics market in 2010 was 3 billion dollars.  Yeah, that is not chump change.  3D printed orthotics will be less costly and take far less time to produce than conventional methods.  I call that a game changer in one major industry.  Fast forward 10 years.  You go to the orthopedic clinic, they do their scans and tests, design the orthotic and give you the file.  You go home and print it yourself.  Print several copies, and you have enough for all your shoes.  Material cost?  About $1.25 per cubic inch, or about $10 per orthotic.  That is a far cry from the $300 to $500 one pays in my neck of the woods.

Now we have a concrete example how “home” 3D printers are revolutionizing one very important industry.

HEY !! Okay, now we’re talking.

Though I don’t know squat about orthotics so I’ll take your word for it.

So, I guess you pay $500-1,000 or whatever for an orthopedic qualified printer, go to the orthopedic guy, he gives you a design file, and charges you $X for it (whatever he charges, since I doubt he’d do the design and give it to you for free. Unless orthopedists are known for being super nice guys….), then you print some orthotics (BTW, those are feet things, right?), and that’s cheaper than buying orthotics for $300-500.

Okay, maybe there’s something there. Though I find it real hard to believe that all the folks making that $3 billion in the orthotics industry will just give that up so you can save on orthotics, but anyway…..

Cool. So now we’re a tad closer to that 20% figure. But just a tad…. 

KorvisBlack - 10 January 2013 01:37 AM

Home Depot sells lots of plastic bits (fittings and such) that are made from ABS.  Home 3D printers use ABS.  Hmm.  Too bad you could not just buy the design and print it at home.  Then again, in 10 years, maybe you will do exactly that.

Oh, and the Home Depot thing with ABS fittings…

I really doubt it. Y’know, when you’re working on lawn sprinklers or whatever, and you need some fittings, you also need a bunch of other stuff to go with it. You’ll probably need that ABS glue, and some 10ft. sections of pipe, and yeah, you’ll need some fittings, but also some brass sprinkler heads, etc.

And since you’ve gotta go to Home Depot for all the rest of that stuff, it’s real quick and simple and cheap to grab a bunch of fittings on the way out. Certainly a lot more convenient than setting up your printer with ABS goop, cleaning the heads, getting the software running, and spending how many hours printing out one or more fittings.

And BTW, you can print out a solid ABS fitting that has the same strength and PSI ratings as the stuff you buy at Home Depot? That’s surprising.

JoeMamma2000 - 26 December 2012 08:28 PM

cdordoni - 26 December 2012 06:29 PM

Look at Lowe’s and Home Depot. Over the last 30 years this market has exploded.

Yes, it has. And the reason is that people can build, repair, and renovate important stuff with what Home Depot sells. Like their houses, and their property.

Again, give me a good example of what the average household can build with a 3D printer that they would WANT to build, and that is the right size for a 3D printer, and the right material that can be handled by a 3D printer. And once you figure that out, show me where it is cost effective.

But please, don’t compare it to Home Depot. It’s totally irrelevant.

I think you have to take the long term view, not the short term.

When I bought my first home computer back in1980, besides games the only main thing advertised for it was home-centric items (mostly to help convince wives their husbands should get it), things like “recipes”. As in your analogies, why would anybody replace a fifty-cent pack of index cards with a $3000 computer?

Once home computer became common and Macs came out, we got laser printers (my first Apple Laserwriter Plus, in 1986, cost just over $10,000). Why would anyone want a $10,000 printer, black and white, when colour inkjets were so cheap (in comparison)? It led, of course, with colour scanners to a complete overhaul of the printing/publishing industry, followed by 3D and movie making, etc.

We’re looking now at incredibly inexpensive 3D printers (when you compare it to my first laser printer) and we’re looking at home uses like jewelry, buttons, tabletop miniatures, as well as some business applications, but we have to view it in the same way some people viewed the first home computers.

Something that your average computer geek or scientific type might find worthwhile is this:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/25/tech/innovation/inmoov-robot-3d-printing/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews

If you consider that you can—RIGHT NOW— make your own life-size robot for less than a thousand dollars, add in all of the kids growing up with Lego Mindstorms, extrapolate that a few years into the future and you might consider that world-changing. I do.

The same kind of people who latched on to home computers and laser printers are going to latch on to this, and I have no doubt they’re going to change the world just as much as they’ve already done for the last 30 years.

And that’s just robots, one field.

—Walt Sterdan

wsterdan - 27 January 2013 09:32 AM

JoeMamma2000 - 26 December 2012 08:28 PM

cdordoni - 26 December 2012 06:29 PM

Look at Lowe’s and Home Depot. Over the last 30 years this market has exploded.

Yes, it has. And the reason is that people can build, repair, and renovate important stuff with what Home Depot sells. Like their houses, and their property.

Again, give me a good example of what the average household can build with a 3D printer that they would WANT to build, and that is the right size for a 3D printer, and the right material that can be handled by a 3D printer. And once you figure that out, show me where it is cost effective.

But please, don’t compare it to Home Depot. It’s totally irrelevant.

I think you have to take the long term view, not the short term.

When I bought my first home computer back in1980, besides games the only main thing advertised for it was home-centric items (mostly to help convince wives their husbands should get it), things like “recipes”. As in your analogies, why would anybody replace a fifty-cent pack of index cards with a $3000 computer?

Once home computer became common and Macs came out, we got laser printers (my first Apple Laserwriter Plus, in 1986, cost just over $10,000). Why would anyone want a $10,000 printer, black and white, when colour inkjets were so cheap (in comparison)? It led, of course, with colour scanners to a complete overhaul of the printing/publishing industry, followed by 3D and movie making, etc.

We’re looking now at incredibly inexpensive 3D printers (when you compare it to my first laser printer) and we’re looking at home uses like jewelry, buttons, tabletop miniatures, as well as some business applications, but we have to view it in the same way some people viewed the first home computers.

Something that your average computer geek or scientific type might find worthwhile is this:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/25/tech/innovation/inmoov-robot-3d-printing/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews

If you consider that you can—RIGHT NOW— make your own life-size robot for less than a thousand dollars, add in all of the kids growing up with Lego Mindstorms, extrapolate that a few years into the future and you might consider that world-changing. I do.

The same kind of people who latched on to home computers and laser printers are going to latch on to this, and I have no doubt they’re going to change the world just as much as they’ve already done for the last 30 years.

And that’s just robots, one field.

—Walt Sterdan

I’m with Walt on this 100%
People all over the planet have varying degrees of imagination. I come from a family of true genius genetics - but I was a black sheep - but most things still come very naturally to me - in the way of learning and understanding concepts (whoa, did I just repeat myself but with different words?). But where my ticker ended up showing its colors was in the area of imagination and art.
Having artistic abilities my whole life has made me recognize the gift among many others. It’s amazing where you’d find it. I think most families have someone with at least some artistic skill. Look at what people with the Carrara community alone come up with to run through the render engine. It’s amazing how different we all are.
With all of that, it becomes clear that we could speculate all sorts of things now… but later, once we start to see what people can actually do, we’ll laugh at how closed our eyes were.

My Brothers current profession is Head Engineer of this, most amazing autonomous rig:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=4020621393840
TerraMax! 10 tons of truck that needs no driver!
Edit: Okay, after watching the (very cool) video, I have to tell you that the video doesn’t even begin to describe TerraMax’s arsenal of sensory perception. The lasers are only a small tip of the ice burg.
My Sisters and Cousins are also far beyond exceptional on the IQ scale where I only rank high. I have a very young cousin whom is also an AI/autonomous/robotic expert/genius.
Point being: this is only one family in a vast world, where I can see enormous potential for something like a small 3d printer investment and the materials needed for whatever project. The sky isn’t even a limit.

future 3d printing organs:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57567789-1/3d-printing-with-stem-cells-could-lead-to-printable-organs/

3d printing with cartilage:
http://entertainment.msn.com/videopreview/?channelindex=8&from=en-us_msnhp#/video/7c797b87-60d1-1580-780d-ba79d80bc13c

Dartanbeck - 27 January 2013 11:55 AM

Point being: this is only one family in a vast world, where I can see enormous potential for something like a small 3d printer investment and the materials needed for whatever project. The sky isn’t even a limit.

Wow. I’ve been served.

And I’m man enough to admit I was wrong. And in this case I was clearly wrong. Thank you, Mr. Beck. You’ve provided me with an iron clad, indisputable case that, frankly, I can’t argue with.

Dartanbeck’s entire family is, like, really really smart, therefore 3D printers will be the next great thing in the history of mankind.

Awesome.

(BTW, you’re not going to flip me the bird again, are you? Unless that’s standard practice by really smart people…?)